Would a guy like Alex do much worse if I built his list by throwing darts at the 40k wall?
Uh, yeah, I'd think so.. You could always ask Alex. There are times I feel when I've
almost beaten him, so I certainly that would be easier if he had a crummy list.
List matters a lot, I think. That said, I don't know that this comp does a great job of punishing "good" lists, it seems like it more merely punishes "popular". Those are not at all synonymous. I like Hammerheads, personally find them more useful per point than broadsides, but they're aren't popular, so they weren't penalized.
It's worth asking, what do you want a comp system to do? Way I see it, there's a few options:
1) Balance out "Good lists". I.e. if you actively take a bad list, you're rewarded for it.
2) Create more diversity -- either by reducing spam (3 riptides, 7 wave serpents, whatever) and also by making sure we see more than one type of list....not everything einds up being jet seer all the time, or O'Vesa star
3) Some people just want to get rid of the "broken" things.....mostly deathstars of various types, atm.
I don't love #1, because to me, list building is a fun part of the game. Personally, I just want to see both more different codexes and more different builds within those codexes do well.